Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS64 KEPZ 041737
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1137 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest for the Sacramento
   Mountains on Saturday, with some slow-moving storms along the
   east slopes possible again.

 - There`s a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm working into
   eastern El Paso county Saturday evening. Breezy outflow winds
   from the east are a more likely scenario around, and shortly
   after sunset.

 - Lowland highs will stay in the upper 90s and lower triple
   digits each afternoon through the week ahead.

 - Scattered thunderstorms in mountain areas starting Monday
   persisting through much of the work week. The lowlands will
   also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the
   mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Upper high stays broadly over the area through around Tuesday. The
upper high then becomes shunted westward leaving the area under
northerly to northeast flow midweek to late next week. Moisture will
stay put under the high to allow for daily thunderstorm chances.
Storms this afternoon are expected to stay confined east of the Rio
Grande with the Sacramento Mtns seeing the best chances and coverage
for storms. Gusty outflow winds still expected near thunderstorms.
Hi-res guidance continues to suggest an outflow pushing west from
the thunderstorms early this evening with a timing that may impact
fireworks shows. Current outflow timing is around 8/9PM tonight.
Storm activity will dwindle after sunset. Sunday afternoon looks
more active than what we`ll see today and also more widespread
chances for thunderstorms. Looks like we`ll have an added shortwave
trough to help activate storms tomorrow. Somewhat better moisture
flushes in on Monday which will raise our PWs to around 1.1".
Tuesday through Thursday PWs will be 1.1"-1.2" which is nearing the
90th percentile for this time of year. Water loaded storms like this
will add to the flooding threat those days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms for locations east of the
Rio Grande. Most terminals don`t have a chance to see a storm this
afternoon but KTCS has a chance to see a shower which could produce
gusty outflow winds. Hi-res guidance is suggesting an outflow to
push from east to west tonight around 7-9PM shifting winds easterly
for KELP and even KLRU. Otherwise, winds stay generally light
outside of outflows with high clouds staying overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Critical min RHs persist into Sunday for lowland locations west of
the Rio Grande. Values will range from 11-15% across the lowlands.
The Gila region will be just above critical thresholds at 16-19%.
East of the Rio Grande, min RHs will be 16-20% with the Sacramento
Mtns seeing RHs of 30-40%.  Thunderstorm chances looks to be more
widespread Sunday and a bit more active. One thing to note will be
the dry lightning threat tomorrow in the Gila region. ERCs are up to
the 90th-96th percentile, coupled with virga thunderstorms that are
expected tomorrow in this area. Monday through Thursday the area can
expect daily thunderstorm chances with scattered storms in the area
mountains and isolated storms in the lowlands. Min RHs Monday will
be mostly above critical thresholds but some desert lowland
locations will see 14-15% RHs in far SW NM but the rest of the
lowlands will see RHs up to 20% and 35-45% in the mountains. Few
percent increase in min RHs Tuesday compared to Monday. Desert
lowland min RHs dip Wednesday and even into Thursday returning
critical min RHs again to much of the lowlands by Thursday. Mountain
RHs midweek will be 25-40%. 20 foot winds stay fairly light each
afternoon through late next week with calm winds overnight. Speeds
will generally be 5-10 mph outside of thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 101  77  99 /  10  30  20  10
Sierra Blanca            69  95  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
Las Cruces               71  98  69  97 /   0  30  20  10
Alamogordo               73  97  69  96 /  30  50   0  40
Cloudcroft               55  74  52  73 /  30  70  10  70
Truth or Consequences    73  97  71  97 /   0  20  10  30
Silver City              68  93  67  92 /  10  20  10  70
Deming                   70 101  69 100 /   0  20  10  10
Lordsburg                71  99  72  99 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro       78  99  76  98 /  10  30  20  10
Dell City                72  98  69  97 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Hancock             76 102  75 101 /  10  20  10  10
Loma Linda               71  93  69  91 /  20  30  20  20
Fabens                   76 101  75 100 /   0  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             74  98  72  97 /   0  30  20  10
White Sands HQ           79  98  76  98 /  20  40  20  10
Jornada Range            72  98  70  97 /  10  40  10  10
Hatch                    73 101  70 100 /   0  30  10  20
Columbus                 75 102  75 101 /   0  10  10  10
Orogrande                72  97  69  95 /  20  40  20  20
Mayhill                  59  84  56  84 /  20  50  20  50
Mescalero                58  85  56  84 /   0  70  10  70
Timberon                 57  83  54  81 /  30  50  20  60
Winston                  64  89  62  88 /  10  20  10  70
Hillsboro                71  95  69  94 /  10  20  10  50
Spaceport                70  97  67  96 /   0  40  10  30
Lake Roberts             61  92  61  92 /  20  20   0  80
Hurley                   68  96  67  95 /  10  20   0  50
Cliff                    69  98  68  98 /  10  20   0  60
Mule Creek               67  95  66  95 /   0  10   0  50
Faywood                  69  94  68  93 /  10  20   0  40
Animas                   71  99  71  99 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                  70  99  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           70  99  72  99 /   0  10  10  10
Cloverdale               67  94  68  94 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher