Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

072
FXUS64 KEPZ 250614
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1114 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

 - Light rain showers pushing into south-central New Mexico
   currently, will diminish as they cross the Rio Grande. Minimal
   impacts, as snow levels remain above mountaintop level.

 - A frontal passage Sunday into Monday will bring cooler
   temperatures and sparse chances for precipitation.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

When what to my wondering eyes should appear? No sleigh or
reindeer, but rain -- near here, and puddles in Silver City. The
storm system over California and Arizona managed to sling a weak
shortwave trough into southwestern New Mexico, and just enough
moisture for some rain showers, which have managed to push east of
the Black Range and even past Deming with measurable rainfall.
Evaporative cooling has brought the winds up a little bit on the
leasing edge of the showers, though they`ll trend back towards
light and variable shortly after onset. Carried the mentionable
PoPs further east with this update, which could see a hundredth or
two make it into Las Cruces overnight, and perhaps a sprinkle into
west El Paso.

Snow levels remain well above 11,000 feet... with EBID`s station
on Emory Pass checking in with 41 degrees, and Mount Graham in
Arizona at 34 (10,400 feet). So no snow, even on the mountain
tops. And even if some precip managed to survive into the
Sacramentos, it`d all be rain there as well.

Otherwise, our warm spell will continue. Currently looking at a
high around 75 for ELP, which would tie the record for warmest
Christmas Day, but the mid and high clouds could play spoiler if
they don`t clear out. Either way, we`re still on track for the
warmest December on record based on Max Temps and Daily Average
Temps.

Another trough moving into California will send another shortwave
our way on Saturday, bringing breezy SW winds to the lowlands, and
an outside chance of additional spotty/insignificant rain showers
to the higher terrain, favoring SW New Mexico slightly.

Behind the trough, northwest flow will bring our temperatures down
about 10 degrees, and a backdoor cold front Sunday night will drop
us even further.

A very low confidence forecast follows, with a blocking high over
California set to develop, and a cutoff low to its south, and a
deformation zone across northern Mexico. Previous model runs
suggested the deformation zone would be further north, and would
bring us light rain showers near and south of the International
border, but more recent guidance has shifted south. The 12Z ECMWF
is a holdout, but we`ll see what the new ensemble guidance brings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Light rain showers are have pushed into DMN and TCS, preceded by
slightly gusty winds due to evaporational cooling. A few showers
could reach LRU after 07Z, but are unlikely to reach ELP. Either
way, ceilings will only drop to around 7000-9000 feet, and
visibility will remain at or above 10 miles. Shower activity will
diminish by Thursday morning, with high clouds and light/variable
winds prevailing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

With upper level high pressure pushing eastward into south Texas
and increased subtropical moisture, fire weather concerns will be
limited through the close of the week. MinRH will stay above 20
percent nearly all zones throughout the forecast period. Isolated
showers this evening through Thursday will favor the Gila, but a
wetting rainfall is not expected.

A back and side door front will push into the Borderland late
Sunday through Monday, causing an easterly to northerly wind shift
overnight. Some gusts may approach 35 to 40 mph across the high
terrain and adjacent slopes Sunday night and early Monday morning.
The potential for more widespread precipitation may accompany
this front, with more appreciable accumulation across the high
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  50  75  49  75 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            50  73  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               48  71  42  70 /  40   0   0   0
Alamogordo               47  72  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               42  52  41  51 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    48  71  43  70 /  60   0   0   0
Silver City              46  65  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
Deming                   48  74  43  73 /  70  10   0   0
Lordsburg                46  70  39  70 /  50  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       51  74  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                44  75  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             49  78  46  79 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda               43  68  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   48  76  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             47  73  44  72 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           53  74  51  73 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range            47  71  39  71 /  40   0   0   0
Hatch                    48  75  38  74 /  50   0   0   0
Columbus                 50  75  45  74 /  50  10   0   0
Orogrande                48  71  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  41  66  41  67 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero                41  63  35  63 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                 40  62  34  61 /  20  10   0   0
Winston                  41  65  33  65 /  60  10   0   0
Hillsboro                50  71  44  70 /  60  10   0   0
Spaceport                46  71  39  70 /  50   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             40  63  25  64 /  90  10   0  10
Hurley                   46  68  40  68 /  90  10   0   0
Cliff                    42  70  33  70 /  60  20   0   0
Mule Creek               40  65  28  65 /  60  20   0   0
Faywood                  45  68  42  68 /  90  10   0   0
Animas                   47  72  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Hachita                  47  73  44  73 /  50  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  74  39  75 /  30  10   0   0
Cloverdale               51  66  45  68 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman